Monday 2 September 2013

Archduke Sarin

I was talking to Heather about Syria and she asked me if I was scared. Unfortunately, it's got to the point where frankly, not be scared is illogical. We are on the brink of the third world war, it sounds like I'm being melodramatic but I honestly believe that.
Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya all had one difference to Syria that makes this so, no powerful countries tried to stop an invasion. Syria is backed by China and Russia, two of the largest and most powerful countries on Earth and both Permanent members of the UN security council.
Despite this fact, Obama drew a line in the sand, he made it very clear that America would not tolerate the use of chemical weapons... Chemical weapons were used. So, like it or not, Obama pretty much needs a war to maintain his credibility. I can tell you exactly what will happen if and when the American troops land in Syria, because it has already happened once before.
On Sunday the 28th of June 1914 a 19 year old Gavrilo Princip shot and killed the Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, this is the WW1 equivalent of the sarin, the spark in the powder keg. So Austria invaded Serbia, much as America seems poised to invade Syria. In both the past and all too likely future events, Russia steps in to defend it's smaller ally. Obviously Austria called on its allies and Russia on its, leading to WW1. The same thing will inevitably happen in Syria, America will bring in its European allies and Russia will be joined by China and Iran.
For the third time the world's superpowers will be at war with one another, millions will die and the reason for the war starting will be lost among the fighting, the assassination of Franz Ferdinand was not enough to warrant the first world war, just as the use of sarin gas does not justify the third.
Something needs to be done in Syria, but invasion is not it.